The obvious, less obvious and your (tech) predictions for 2020 and beyond…

To start, I think that predicting technological developments or trends on a yearly basis is not the way to go. It doesn’t really work like that. “predicting” probably isn’t the best word either. A product, trend, proposition, or technology slowly evolves into something bigger, when successful that is (hence the “develop” or “trend” entitlement). Saying that 2020 will be the year of xxx isn’t fair, at least not without proper context. I’ll try and explain what I mean by this.

Has 2019 been the year of VDI? I’d say no. At least not in the way I’ve seen it announced by some. Some get it wright, some don’t, from a context point of view, I mean.

VDI (I’m only using VDI as an example because it has come up a lot throughout 2019, I don’t have anything against it, I’m not necessarily pro either) has been in development for many years so it makes sense that there will come a time, the year 2019 for example that the technology will be used or implemented more when compared to previous years. That’s because the product has matured, the technology is “proven”, marketing has done its job, and so on. If that’s your rationale, you are absolutely right… 2019, at least up till now, was the year of VDI.

However, it has become a trend to interexchange the terms VDI and DaaS, especially throughout 2019. Why that is? Marketing. Microsoft’s Windows Virtual Desktop proposition is booming and everyone want a piece of the pie. Suddenly, VDI has evolved into DaaS, a memo I’ve missed, I guess. Also, it isn’t true. These are two distinct solutions. Similar in some ways, but different none the less.

So, provide context, or talk about developments over the span of multiple years, that would be a better approach if you ask me.

Anyway, that’s not what I wanted to write about, or not primarily anyway. Below I’ll list some obvious as well as less obvious trends for 2020 and beyond. I’ve also included a short list of replies I got via Twitter. Some are technical, some are related to technology, and some aren’t trends (yet), though this might change going forward.

The more obvious ones…

• Serverless technology has shown a year over year growth of 75%. The technology is still relatively new (2016) though I think it’s safe to say that the potential is huge.
• Container technology, often combined with Kubernetes is big as well. Not a day goes by without it being in the news, positively and negatively.
• DaaS has an expected growth trajectory of around 10+% in the next 3 to 5 years.
• Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Virtual Reality. I’d call these the low hanging fruit, at least for the sake of this article. I realize that the bits involved are a lot more complex. All companies of name are currently experimenting with one or more of these technologies. This field will see major developments and use cases going forward, including 2020.
• Office 365 already has over 200 million active users. I think nobody will argue that this is a trend which will continue in the years to come. I’ve heard/read that this number increments with over 3 million user per month.
• Big Data and Data Lake solutions continue to grow. Though, I must say that the excitement around these types of solutions has slowed down a bit.
• More and more SaaS solutions. Does this mean we’ll see a SaaS only world any time soon? I don’t think so. Recently I wrote an 13 page Essay as part of short 3 month in between (Cloud related) study I did (passed with honors, by the way). During my research I came across some numbers published by Microsoft stating that with Windows 10 alone they currently support over 35 million application titles and over 16 million unique hardware/driver combinations! To think these will disappear within now and 10 years or so would be a bit naïve.
• BYOD is still huge. The concept has been around for many years though a lot companies are still struggling to “deal” with it successfully. The technology was, or isn’t perfect, sure, but from what I have seen throughout the past few years the technology is only a small part of the challenge. The biggest struggles were around the absence of, or weak policy, persistence and communication, every single time! Who knows, maybe 2020 is the start of something special :)
• Multi and Hybrid Cloud solutions will continue to grow and evolve. Azure Arc, GCP Anthos, AWS Outposts are all great examples of this. Cloud only isn’t a short term reality if you ask me, if at all.
• Security continues to be a hot topic. Cryptojacking, cyber wars, phishing sites and emails, you name it, the list is endless and we have many current examples of all of these, unfortunately. What to think about some of the upcoming security threat trends like deep voice fakes, more (micro) targeted attacks (specific companies, branches, or persons even), SMS 2FA attacks, and more. Zero Trust is a good development in that respect, no magic bullet though.  
• EUCdigest is going to be huge in 2020.

The less obvious ones…

• Cloud exit strategies will get (need) more attention. Now that companies of all sizes have had their taste of “Cloud” some are looking for ways to get some of their workloads back on prem (which is actually another trend I see). While doing so they encounter multiple challenges. With a proper exit strategie in place many of these challenges, if not all do not come as a surprise and can be handled accordingly and timely without additional or unforeseen investments. It may have a negative sound to it but it’s not meant in that way. When a provider changes their SLA’s (something which they can do whitin giving notice, by the way), when support or performance is poor, services are no longer available, the vendor goes out of business, when you would like to move data to another Cloud provider (or multi-Cloud), and more a “plan” like this has got you covered. It’s like an insurance you hope you won’t need, but when you do you are glad you have it.
• From a consultancy point of view more and more (traditional) technical roles will (and should) focus on communication and other softskills. A trend that started a few years ago, one I experienced firsthand during one of my former employments. It is often said that technical folks are not good communicators, I disagree. I don’t necessarily think that’s the case by default, although many seem to think so. Sure, you can’t change someone’s personality and you can’t argue natural talent. However, there is a lot in between and some of it can be taught and/or adopted if the professional in question has the desire to do so. Even if it does not come naturally, you can always improve, always!
• Cloud adoption frameworks will grow in popularity. Cloud lowers barriers. It’s relatively easy to get started, which comes with (serious) challenges as well, something I won’t get into now (Shadow IT being one of the biggest threats). Companies are looking for a more structured and thought through way to adopt and implement Cloud services. They’ve noticed that Cloud is about much more than technology. In fact, I’d say that the technology involved is the smallest piece of the puzzle. The biggest challenges are to be found in cultural changes, internal processes that change, moving from a Capex to Opex model has an impact as well, end-user acceptance and training, communication, and much more. An adoption framework helps with this and is applicable to companies of all sizes.
• Datacenters will continue (and need) to evolve. Cloud datacenters are being built and taken into production in rapid pace all over the globe. They all cope with the same challenges. Cooling and power being the most obvious ones (one needing the other, of course). In the Netherlands we’ve seen multiple examples of Cloud datacenters not being allowed to further expand because of power shortages in the area. In fact, some datacenter near Amsterdam already consume emergency / back-up power because the main grid is not capable of providing enough power on its own. What happens when there is an outage? These datacenters will be without power all together. The people in the nearby neighborhoods will get priority, the way it should be. However, this could have a big impact on the businesses using their services. A potential major issue going forward.
• More green energy sources are needed (another challenge that won’t be tackled throughout 2020 alone). The amount of power consumed by (Cloud) datacenters worldwide is staggering. In the U.S. companies like Microsoft, Google and AWS state that 40, 50, 60, or near to a 100 % of their energy consumption comes from renewable energy. That sounds great, though it’s not entirely true. While they all have optimized their systems (servers, racks etc.) up to a point where they run as efficient as humanly possible, though machine learning plays a role in this as well, the amount of power needed is still mind boggling. All major Cloud providers invest heavily in something called Renewably Energy Credits, or REC’s in short. REC’s are tradable, non-tangible energy commodities in the United States that represent proof that 1 megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity was generated from an eligible renewable energy resource (renewable electricity) and was fed into the shared system of power lines which transport energy. REC’s can only be used 1 time and do not guarantee that renewable energy is being used, at all. It’s basically a way to fund renewable energy projects (badly needed) and companies globally up till a point where all energy will be green someday. That’s the utopia, of course. Will this happen in our lifetime? probably not. In reality AWS, Azure, GCP and many others are all still connected to the main grids where fossil fuels are being used to generate electricity (coal still being the Nr 1 resource). The amount of green energy consumed by these companies is actually neglectable in most cases, unfortunately. I’m no Greta, though I do think we need to step up our game.
• Cloud outages will become a bigger trend in 2020 and beyond. It’s something we’ve seen happening throughout the last year and a half or so. The amount of disruptions has increased. With more and more companies giving the Cloud a spin, never mind in what form many datacenters will get closer to hitting their full capacity. Not something they’ll advertise, but it’s a logical consequence if you ask me. Resources are being consumed much quicker than new ones can be built or offered. Do you remember the stories about VM’s not being able to start in some of the U.S. datacenters because of a lack of resources in the region ( a few weeks ago)? We’re only just getting started :)

The ones that were Tweeted…

Last week I Tweeted the following:

Below are the replies I received, in random order and near to a 100% quotes, except for one, which I translated from Dutch to ENG.

• Be more productive with technology from cloud services.
• Aid computing
• Windows 10
• Operational cost savings
• Support for Windows 7 SP1 will end. I’m wondering how many companies take action on this, or call in help form the outside.
• More better security stances
• Future of work
• The year of fire… the year of destruction… the year we took back what was ours. It was the year of rebirth… the year of great sadness… the year of pain… and the year of joy.
• People looking at Cloud as an enabler, not a goal by itself
• Awingu
• Bitcoin
• IGEL!
• Cyber war.
• Clarity.
• WVD.

Thanks for reading and happy new year!

Bas van Kaam

Field CTO EMEA by day, author by night @ Nerdio

Father of three, EMEA Field CTO @ Nerdio, Author of the book Van de Basis tot aan Meester in de Cloud, Co-author of the book Project Byte-Sized and Yuthor of the book: Inside Citrix – The FlexCast Management Architecture, over 500 blog posts and multiple (ultimate) cheat sheets/e-books. Public speaker, sport enthusiast­­­­­­­­: above-average runner, 3 x burpee-mile finisher and a former semiprofessional snooker player. IT community participant and initiator of the AVD User group Community world wide.